![]() ![]() For example, here are last year’s leaders in target share…įirst read targets are plays where the pass was designed to go to a specific receiver (on the QBs first read), and the receiver actually earned the target on the play. Are you earning targets or not? And, are those targets consistently accurate or not?īasically, if you look at the top-25 list of players by target share, it’ll be an excellent guide for the top-scoring receivers. Unlike RB scoring, where a number of things can work against the runner, WR and TE scoring is a lot more binary. Target Share / First Read Target ShareĪfter XFP, overall target share and first read target share are among the top usage stats to utilize for your WR and TE decisions. Score = to determine which RBs play when leading/trailingĭown = to determine which RBs are playing on third-downs, early-downs, etc.ģ. Yards to goal = distance from end-zone (inside-20, inside-10, etc.) Use the Play Filters (left-side menu) to sort by situation Go to Bell Cow Report > sort by snap% (Snap Share) (Shocker!).įor example, snap share in the red zone correlates better to raw fantasy points scored than any receiving usage stat (like route% or target%).Ĭheck out my deep dive into RB red-zone usage and snap splits here. Snaps really matter when the offense gets into scoring range. If you’re ever deciding between two RBs for fantasy and one plays on 65% of the snaps while the other projects for 50%, well, that’s a pretty good final determining factor in favor of the former (65% snap) RB. With more committee backfields than ever, understanding how your RBs are earning snaps and the value of those snaps is paramount. This data measures how well each stat (on the left-hand column) correlates with fantasy points (value in the right-hand column). For running backs specifically, we noted that snaps correlate best to fantasy points (after XFP). In my most important stat series from this summer, I analyzed which stats correlate best to fantasy points across all positions. That’s usually the difference between the ~RB4 and ~RB20 in scoring. Over the last three seasons, Mixon has averaged 18.3 Half-PPR fantasy points per game in wins vs. The Bengals are favored in six-straight games before their Week 7 bye, and Mixon has shown pretty wide splits in terms of his scoring in wins vs. We’re going to find out quickly this season whether or not Mixon still has it. * 32nd in YPC on zone-concept runs (2.99) His metrics last season via 33rd-of-33 RBs in missed tackles forced per carry (0.086) ![]() But there are some major red flags in his profile. Joe Mixon still has a great TD upside for fantasy. On the other hand, Mixon under-performing according to XFP could be a sign of skill regression as opposed to bad luck… Mixon finished as the RB8 in FPG (15.0) last season, well behind his XFP (17.9). ![]() On the one hand, he looks like a good buy-low based on his role. ![]() Joe Mixon is probably the biggest surprise on this list. Christian McCaffrey (21.1) – SF games only Last year, the XFP per game leaders in Half PPR were: 1. XFP accounts for the value of targets and appropriately weighs them. Generally speaking, a target is worth 2.5x more fantasy points than a carry in PPR scoring, while that figure is 2x in Half-PPR leagues. XFP can be used across all positions, but it’s easily my favorite usage stat to analyze for running backs. It’s the stat to use to identify positive or negative regression candidates. XFP measures the number of fantasy points you’d expect a player to score on a per-play basis – and that number is based on down and distance, yards from the goal line, and average depth of target. XFP is Expected Fantasy Points, which is Scott Barrett’s brainchild. Consider these the most important metrics to use on a weekly basis to help analyze fantasy lineups, place wagers, and set DFS rosters. In this article, we will walk through the top-10 most important stats to know, understand, and utilize. So, if you’re new to FPD – welcome! Your first question is probably, “How do I apply this to my fantasy teams?” Our goal is to create tools and stats not just to view – but to understand and implement in your own research. The greatest part is that we are just scratching the surface of FPD’s power. Seriously, if you spend more than 3 minutes there, you will see exactly what I’m talking about. Fantasy Points Data is home to the best tool shed for NFL data available on the internet. ![]()
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